Anthropic Valuation Doubts: IPO Investors Balk at $1.5 Trillion

The Anthropic valuation investors expected only weeks ago is under pressure days before its planned roadshow. Three major investors planning to join the IPO told the Wall Street Journal that the expected $1.5 trillion is unlikely, and one said the figure could be closer to $1 trillion, according to PYMNTS' summary of the report. Reuters separately reported that potential investors doubt the company can start its roadshow next week in time for a November listing. The outcome matters beyond one company, because this price will help set what public markets pay for AI growth.

$1.5T

Valuation recently discussed; some investors see it as the high end, per Reuters

~$1T

Where one major investor sees it, per the WSJ

$965B

Private valuation in the May funding round

$100B

Offering size some investors expected, per Reuters

The roadshow was due to start next week

Reuters, citing four people familiar with investor discussions, said the roadshow had been expected to begin the week of November 9, with pricing the week after. Investors now want a more attractive price. If the market stays under pressure, Reuters said, the company could wait until it looks more resilient. Anthropic declined to comment on the doubts.

Nothing is final. Anthropic filed publicly on October 26 and amended the filing on November 2 without stating a size or valuation, PYMNTS reported, and executives and advisers are expected to meet within days to decide next steps. All of the valuation figures in circulation come from investor conversations and unnamed sources, not from the company.

1. Earlier in 2026

   Up to $2 trillion

   The IPO was expected in October at a valuation as high as $2 trillion, Reuters reported.

2. May

   $965 billion

   A private funding round valued Anthropic at $965 billion, according to Let's Data Science.

3. After Oct 14

   About $1.5 trillion

   Following an investor day, Reuters reported that some investors were weighing about $1.5 trillion. An early backer still told Fortune he expected about $1.8 trillion.

4. Nov 5

   Closer to $1 trillion

   One major investor told the WSJ the figure could be closer to $1 trillion. Reuters reported doubts about a November listing.

October revenue, slower growth and big commitments give buyers leverage

The blank line. Anthropic left October revenue empty in its updated S-1, and two people told Reuters that investors are waiting for it. It would be the first look at whether growth has picked up since September.

Slower growth. Revenue reached roughly $17 billion in the third quarter, up about 1,127% from a year earlier, CNBC reported. Quarter-to-quarter growth, though, slowed to around 47% from 144% in the second quarter.

Losses and commitments. Reuters said Anthropic may need a bigger discount because of its record of quarterly losses and its large commitments to partners in the AI build-out. The filing lists about $895.4 billion of committed spending, with $69.8 billion due in the next 12 months, and shows a third-quarter operating loss of $536 million, Yahoo Finance reported. The $104 billion net loss for the first nine months was mostly due to fair value changes on convertible notes and derivatives, CNBC said. Anthropic also held $146.6 billion of cash on September 30, according to CoinCentral. We went through the filing in our Anthropic IPO analysis.

The selloff handed buyers the bargaining power

Timing is the other problem. The Nasdaq Composite lost about $2.5 trillion of value on Thursday, Reuters reported, in the session we covered in our report on the AI stocks crash. More than 50 tech stocks in the S&P 1500 fell 10% or more. Credit default swaps on CoreWeave and SpaceX hit records, and Nebius, IREN and CoreWeave have each lost about half their market value over the past month, Reuters said.

One investor told the WSJ that institutions may be unwilling to put more money into AI stocks so soon after recent losses, CoinCentral reported. Tech has trailed the S&P 500 by 10.7% over the past month, the widest one-month gap since May 2002, Keith Lerner of Truist Advisory Services told Reuters, according to the same report.

Not everyone sees a broken deal. Some analysts expect strong retail demand, as with SpaceX, although SpaceX fell 20% from its peak within a week of its June debut, CoinCentral reported, citing Reuters. Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments told Reuters he expects the listing to happen, with some pullback in private market valuations.

OpenAI and the rest of the AI trade are watching this price

Some investors want to see where Anthropic prices before backing OpenAI, the Financial Times reported, according to CoinCentral. OpenAI has already moved: the FT reported in October that it cut its valuation target to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion and its funding goal to about $20 billion, as we covered in our OpenAI funding round report. OpenAI is aiming for a 2027 debut, CNBC reported.

The strain is not limited to AI labs. Our report on hedge fund losses from the AI selloff shows other large investors cutting risk at the same moment. Our guide to AI investment risks covers how this kind of exposure spreads.

What the AI Bubble Index says

The AI Bubble Index stood at 62.7 in its latest published reading, dated November 5, in the Normal band and down from 64.6 a week earlier. Fragility, at 70, sits above Euphoria at 63.4. Sentiment and attention remains the hottest family at 92.6, and the demand family is the lowest at 39.9. Anthropic is private and is not in the index basket, so a lower IPO price would not move it directly. The dashboard has the daily readings.