Data Center Moratorium Risk: 45% of Planned US Capacity, Goldman Says

A data center moratorium has moved from a campaign promise to a market risk. Goldman Sachs expects Democratic governors in Texas, Georgia and Michigan to impose conditional moratoria pending new legislation, and it estimates that the states likely to add restrictions hold 45% of planned US data center capacity, according to The Motley Fool. CNBC also reported the 45% figure. These are expectations and pledges, not enacted statewide law, but they helped trigger Thursday's worst day for US stocks since April 2025.

45%

Planned US capacity in states likely to add limits, Goldman

40 of 41

Local votes that went against data centers, Ballotpedia and CNBC

27%

Texas share of planned US capacity, Wells Fargo

$170B+

Projects blocked, withdrawn or stalled, Jan 2024 to May 2026, IDCA

Voters rejected data centers almost everywhere they were asked

Out of 41 local ballot measures in 10 states, voters backed restrictions or rejected pro-development measures in all but one, according to Ballotpedia and additional results gathered by CNBC. The exception was Harwood, North Dakota, where voters turned down an added review of industrial projects. Ohio held 21 of the votes, and at least 14 Ohio municipalities passed bans or other limits, Yahoo Finance reported.

Counts vary with the method. CBS News tallied at least 44 of 47 measures passed to restrict data centers, with a few still pending. All of them point the same way. In a CNBC Voter Poll, 56% of voters called data centers a major factor or more in their decision. NBC exit polls found 57% thought AI will do more to hurt society, against 24% who said it would help.

What the new governors have actually promised

Texas is the one that moves the numbers. Wells Fargo puts it at about 27% of planned US capacity, and CBS News counted 169 operating data centers there, 118 under construction and more than 500 planned. The path is not simple. Democrats are on track to control the Texas House, but the state Senate appears set to stay Republican, Yahoo Finance reported, and Hinojosa's lasting rules depend on the Legislature.

Texas had also already hit the brakes before the vote. In September, Governor Greg Abbott told the state environmental regulator to stop issuing data center permits while it gathered more information, Newsweek reported. Abbott also announced a moratorium of his own before the vote, and Hinojosa called his proposals an election year pause. The sources also differ on the states behind Goldman's estimate: The Motley Fool named Texas, Georgia and Michigan as expected moratorium states, while CNBC pointed to Ohio, Texas and Georgia as holding much of the capacity.

Why investors care: 2028 capacity is the exposed part

Timing is the key detail. Nomura said projects planned for 2028 face greater exposure to permitting delays, because much of the 2027 capacity is already under construction, Benzinga reported. So a pause would hit future growth first, not this year's revenue. Opposition was already costly before the election: at least 46 AI data center projects in 20 states, worth more than $170 billion, were blocked, withdrawn or stalled between January 2024 and May 2026, CNBC reported, citing IDCA.

The stocks most tied to new capacity took the largest hits on Thursday. IREN fell 17%, Nebius 15% and CoreWeave 10%, while Nvidia lost 9.3%, CNBC reported. Credit markets reacted too, as our report on the CoreWeave bond yield shows. Morgan Stanley listed MARA, Cipher Digital, SEI and Galaxy Digital among the most exposed Texas developers, Newsweek reported, and Baird said Oracle and CoreWeave could be hit.

Views on the size of the damage differ. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. now sees Big Tech capex growth peaking in 2027, rather than 2028 or 2029, CNBC reported. Capital Economics said the shock strengthens its sense that the boom is late in its run, while Nigel Green of deVere Group called dumping the whole sector an overreaction, according to CBS News. Friday brought a partial rebound, with IREN up 19.4% late in the session after announcing two new contracts, AP reported. Goldman still estimates AI-related capex of about $7.6 trillion from 2026 through 2031, per CNBC. Our AI capex analysis shows how that spending is funded.

OpenAI says the vote changes little, but it changed its rules

OpenAI's chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, told CNBC on Friday at a Citi conference in Pebble Beach that the election did not dramatically change anything for the company, and that it will keep investing to meet customer demand. She also said the company would continue to look at a 2027 public debut and that its current funding round is ongoing.

The company still moved quickly on policy. On Thursday, OpenAI published a blueprint and pledged that at future data centers it owns and operates, it will seek community input, publish construction plans and avoid non-disclosure agreements with public officials. It also reaffirmed its promise to pay the full cost of powering data centers. These are company commitments, and CNBC noted they cover company-owned and operated sites. OpenAI has large plans in exposed states, including 8 gigawatts of capacity at a planned campus in Ohio, the state that just elected Acton.

What the AI Bubble Index says

The AI Bubble Index stood at 62.7 in its latest published reading, dated November 5, in the Normal band and down from 64.6 a week earlier. Sentiment and attention remains the highest family at 92.6, while the demand family reads 39.9 and Fragility, at 70, sits above Euphoria at 63.4. The index measures market conditions, not permits, so it will not capture a moratorium directly. The methodology explains each family, and our guide to AI investment risks covers infrastructure risk in more depth.